[GenghisPhlip]

In a recent report Credit Suisse Research analyst Jonathan Chaplin said that he thinks that Apple’s iPhone will remain the exclusive territory of AT&T for at least the next 12-18 months. This estimate far surpasses the expectations of many wannabe iPhone users who are tied to other carriers and runs counter to the recent rumors of a pending Apple/Verizon deal. Chaplin not only expects the device to remain exclusive but also forecasts a major negative impact on Verizon due to the delay. These factors have caused him to reduce Verizon’s rating from “Outperform” to “Neutral” and cut his share price target for that company from $32 to $30.


“Our analysis suggests that Apple will eventually sell the device at all carriers; however, there is a much greater probability that AT&T keeps exclusivity for another 12-18 months than investors realize,” Chaplin wrote. “We think this has profound impacts for Apple, the carriers and the other handset OEMs.”

Credit Suisse gives a 75% probability that AT&T will maintain their exclusivity with the iPhone through the end of the year.

“We conclude there is only a 50% probability that it (exclusivity) ends in 2010,” Chaplin wrote. “Next, we try to determine whether AT&T bids for another year of exclusivity if exclusivity does end in 2010. We conclude they would and they can afford to compensate Apple such that Apple would be economically indifferent. Our approach yields a 25% probability for this outcome. Taken together, we see a 75% probability that AT&T keeps exclusivity for another year.”

Similar predictions have been made by analysts in the past with varying results and while Mr. Chaplin’s reputation is not well known to ifonenation we do have to wonder what exactly Apple has in the works for his device. Will the iPhone ever be available to Verizon customers? Would it be a smart move on Apple’s part to allow another carrier for the iPhone? Or is it that Steve still holds some animosity toward Verizon for initially rejecting the iPhone?